A new Government assessment of the revived assisted suicide Bill, which MPs will vote on at Second Reading on 11 September, has warned that poverty, poorer access to healthcare, lower-quality care and domestic abuse could lead to “disproportionate numbers of ethnic minority people” opting to end their lives through assisted suicide, as new Government modelling has increased its central estimate of assisted deaths by 60%.
The new warning comes after the Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, said “the fixing of the funding of palliative care and social care” needs to happen before Parliament debates whether to introduce assisted suicide. Burnham said it would be deeply challenging to hold that debate while people were not receiving the care they needed or the peace of mind that such care would be available.
The assessment gives further weight to Burnham’s warning, identifying poorer access to healthcare and lower-quality care as structural pressures that could result in disproportionate numbers of people from ethnic-minority backgrounds opting for an assisted suicide.
In the new impact assessment, the Government has increased its central Year 10 estimate for annual assisted suicide deaths upwards by 60%, from 2,183 to 3,502. This would amount to almost ten assisted suicide deaths every day. The high scenario has risen from 4,559 to 6,257 deaths a year, more than 17 every day.
Key findings in the Government’s new assessments
The Government has published a new impact assessment, equality impact assessment and ECHR memorandum on the revived assisted suicide Bill tabled by Lauren Edwards MP, which MPs will be voting on at Second Reading on Friday 11 September.
The Government has added a new warning that structural pressures involving poverty, poorer healthcare access, lower-quality care and domestic abuse could result in disproportionate numbers of people from ethnic-minority backgrounds choosing an assisted death to avoid financial hardship or escape abuse.
It has also newly identified neglect, poverty and difficult living conditions as potential structural pressures on disabled people considering assisted suicide.
The Government’s central estimate of assisted deaths in Year 10 has risen by 60%, from 2,183 to 3,502 a year. This would amount to almost ten assisted suicide deaths every day. The high scenario has risen from 4,559 to 6,257 deaths a year, more than 17 every day. The report makes clear that even its 6,257 high scenario is not a definitive upper bound.
A new sensitivity analysis produces 9,810 assisted deaths in England and Wales in Year 10 if New Zealand’s actual and projected assisted-death rates are applied here.
The Government has changed the methodology behind its estimates after concluding there is “limited evidence” to support an assumption that growth in assisted deaths levels off after five years.
The central Year 10 cost of health and social care staff time spent on delivering an assisted suicide service has increased from £5.49 million to £9.27 million – around 69%. The high estimate is now £16.6 million.
The new assessment also cites an assisted death in Oregon taking up to 123 hours – just over five days – following ingestion of the prescribed drugs.
The Government is now modelling as much as £30.24 million of State Pension payments in Year 10 that would no longer be required under the high scenario if people died four months earlier than they otherwise would have. The previous assessment’s main equivalent high estimate was £18.3 million.
In 2025, an article arguing that assisted suicide could curb “the pensions bill, the NHS bill and the care bill” prompted fierce criticism from MPs and disability campaigners. Former MP Matthew Parris faced condemnation in Parliament after welcoming pressure on terminally ill people to die sooner so as not to be a burden. A Guernsey politician was rebuked by politicians on both sides of the debate after arguing that assisted suicide could produce “considerable savings”. Wes Streeting called the possibility of people choosing assisted suicide to save the NHS money a “chilling slippery slope”.
In addition, serious concerns identified in previous current Government assessments have continued to be highlighted in the new assessment.
Major poll shows Burnham’s holds the same position as the majority of the public
An MRP poll of over 10,000 people, the largest public poll conducted on assisted suicide since Kim Leadbeater’s Bill was introduced in October 2024, has shown that there is no mandate from the public to revive Leadbeater’s failed assisted suicide bill and circumvent the House of Lords to push it into law.
Legalising assisted suicide came at the very bottom of a list of voters’ priorities they want their MP to focus on if they have the opportunity to make a law change (e.g. through a Private Members’ Bill) over the next year, with half the support of the next lowest scoring priority. Asked to select three priorities, just 7% of the public and 7% of Labour voters consider assisted suicide a priority.
In line with Burnham’s position on assisted suicide, in every single constituency in Great Britain, the majority of voters agreed that Parliament should prioritise fixing the NHS and improving palliative, social and end-of-life care before considering whether to introduce assisted suicide.
Hospices face deficit of more than £70 million
Hospices in England ended the last financial year with a collective deficit of more than £70 million, more than double the previous year.
At least 33 hospices have already made significant cuts to services, while almost six in ten have either made changes or are considering reductions. Hospice UK has warned that “nearly one in three people who need palliative care miss out on the support they need”.
Prominent people with disabilities, including Liz Carr, Ruth Madeley, Rosie Jones and Sophie Morgan, have called for the Bill to be halted until disabled and terminally ill people have as much support to live as the Bill would provide for them to die.
Their open letter warns, “Many disabled people have been made to consider suicide – not by the impact of our conditions, but the social context we live in”.
It argues that inadequate care and support can create a coercive environment in which people choose an earlier death because society has failed them.
Large increase in deaths in jurisdictions considered in impact assessment
California, New Zealand and Oregon are among the jurisdictions considered in the Government’s impact assessment.
In New Zealand, assisted deaths increased from 328 in 2022/23 to 486 in 2025/26, an increase of 48%.
In California, the annual number rose from 495 in 2020 to a record 1,235 in 2025, an increase of almost 150%.
In Oregon, almost two in five people who died by assisted suicide in 2025 reported concern about being a burden on family, friends or caregivers.
Alisdair Hungerford-Morgan, CEO of Right To Life UK, said “The Government’s own equality assessment shows exactly why Andy Burnham is right in identifying that palliative care and social care must be fixed before Parliament debates whether to introduce assisted suicide”.
“In the impact assessment, the Government has warned that structural pressures such as poverty, inadequate care, neglect and abuse could result in disproportionate numbers of people from ethnic-minority backgrounds opting to end their lives through assisted suicide”.
“Parliament should be focusing on introducing policies that provide care, protection and support for people facing these structural pressures who may feel pressure to end their lives, not assisted suicide”.
“Given the state of palliative and social care in this country, introducing assisted suicide would be a disaster”.
“At the same time, the Government has revised its central Year 10 assisted suicide estimate upwards by 60%, from 2,183 to 3,502 deaths a year. Its high scenario now exceeds 6,250 deaths annually, more than 17 every day, and even that is not a maximum”.
“MPs should put care first and vote against this dangerous Bill at Second Reading on 11 September”.
